2025 State of AI Report: The Year of “Action”

2023 was the Year of Discovery: the ChatGPT shock. 

2024 was the Year of Experimentation: pilots and hype cycles. 

2025 will be remembered as the Year of Action.

For two years, AI felt like a breakthrough waiting to fully land. 2023 was the Year of Discovery. 2024 was the Year of Experimentation. 2025 is the Year of Action. The year AI moved from demos to durable systems. 

Enterprise adoption reached 88%, multimodal agents entered production, sovereign AI strategies reshaped national priorities, and for the first time, reasoning benchmarks replaced raw scale as the key performance signal. 

This report integrates frontier model releases, global market dynamics, and Türkiye’s accelerating AI ecosystem.

1. Frontier Models

2025’s defining trend was the collapse of the quality gap between proprietary and open-weight models and LiveBench became the gold-standard proving ground. 

LiveBench Leaders (Dec 2025) 

• Gemini 3 Pro: #1 overall on LiveBench 

• o3-mini:high: #1 in coding & structured reasoning 

• Grok-4 Heavy: #1 on LiveCodeBench with 79.3%, excelling at real-time and dynamic tasks 

• DeepSeek-R1: 87.5% AIME score (state-of-the-art math reasoning for open-source) 

• QwQ (32B): a compact model matching R1’s reasoning efficiency 

• Llama 4: added to the refreshed leaderboard, strengthening open-source competition 

Where 2024’s leaderboards favored size and prompt tuning, LiveBench’s blind evaluations forced a new question: Can your model think without being trained on the answers? 

The results show that reasoning-focused architectures (o3, Gemini 3, Grok-4, DeepSeek R1 etc.) outperform older generation LLMs even with fewer parameters.

2. The Rise of Reasoning Models

2025 marked the shift from “LLMs as autocomplete engines” to LLMs as cognitive systems. 

Key trends 

• Reasoning toggles (e.g., o3-mini:thinking, Kimi K2 Thinking) allow explicit System-2 activation 

• Kimi K2 Thinkingscored 44.9% ARC-AGI, confirming the rise of structured cognition 

• Gemini introduced long-context multimodal chains, scoring 59.6% overall 

• MoE (Mixture-of-Experts) architectures enabled frontier reasoning on single GPUs 

• Contamination-free monthly refreshes restored trust in benchmark scores 

Large models are no longer the only frontier. Efficient reasoning frameworks are. This shift directly powers 2025’s agentic architectures, long-horizon planning, and complex automation cases across the enterprise.

3. Open vs Closed Models

2025 fully ended the narrative that proprietary models maintain a persistent technological moat. 

Open-source highlights 

• DeepSeek-R1 became the undisputed open-weight reasoning leader 

• QwQ 32B demonstrated that compact models can rival massive proprietary systems 

• Llama 4 MoE delivered frontier-tier reasoning locally, accelerating AI adoption 

Proprietary strengths 

• OpenAI (o3)and Google (Gemini 3 Pro) still lead on: 

• multimodal grounding 

• coding & tool use 

• reliability at scale 

Enterprises now choose models not by size or vendor but by: 

• latency needs 

• deployment constraints 

• sovereignty requirements 

• reasoning difficulty 

• multimodal integration

Agentic AI

2025 was the turning point where AI stopped being a helper and became a task-owning agent. 

The agentic shift brought: 

• multi-step planning 

• tool orchestration 

• self-verification 

• execution loops 

• mandatory human approval gates 

Frameworks like LangGraph, AgentKit, CrewAI, and AutoGen matured, with real production use cases: 

Where agents went live 

• Finance: compliance automation, risk scoring 

• Logistics: warehouse optimization, robotic coordination 

• Engineering: autonomous code refactoring & test generation 

The frontier is no longer prediction. The frontier is action.

Infrastructure and Governance

Energy & Compute 

• AI workloads expected to reach 27–35% of all data center electricity by 2030 

• Demand projected to grow 30× to 123 GW by 2035 

• Google committed $75B in AI infrastructure spend 

MoE architectures and quantization now reduce inference energy usage 30–50%. 

Regulation 

• The US rolled back several centralized safeguards, leading to state-led fragmentation 

• The EU moved into full AI Act enforcement 

• The AI Safety Index (Winter 2025) ranked Anthropic, OpenAI, DeepMind highest in controllability

6. Türkiye: Acceleration, Ecosystem Maturity, and AI Priorities

Türkiye’s AI ecosystem in 2025 evolved beyond policy statements, supported by measurable growth in R&D capacity, sovereign infrastructure initiatives, and sectoral adoption. According to the National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2021–2025 Monitoring Report, over 70 planned actions were completed by the end of 2025, marking a transition from strategic planning to operational implementation. Parallel developments in universities, public institutions, and industry accelerated Türkiye’s move toward a sovereign, domain-adapted AI capability aligned with global trends in reasoning-centric and efficient models. 

Ecosystem Growth 

• Over 400 AI startups, valued between $2–4B 

• Strengthening hubs in finance, healthcare, manufacturing, and public services 

• Increasing use of Turkish-language LLMs tailored for regulation-heavy environments 

Domestic LLM Development and Research Capacity 

1. TÜBİTAK BİLGEM – National LLM Project (2024–2025) 

• Turkish-language dataset curation with contamination controls 

• safety-aligned training processes 

• evaluation pipelines compatible with international benchmarks 

• scalable deployment on sovereign HPC infrastructure 

2. Trendyol Open-Source Models 

• domain-tuned tokenizers 

• reproducible training scripts 

• benchmarks aligned with e-commerce scenarios 

3. Academic AI Clusters – ITU, YTU, METU, BOUN

• YTU Cosmos: multilingual embeddings, document understanding, domain adaptation. 

• METU and Boğaziçi Labs: multimodal perception, safe RLHF pipelines, and model evaluation frameworks. 

To scale sovereign AI, Türkiye now must prioritize: 

1. national data governance standards 
2. local LLM verification pipelines 
3. workforce upskilling 
4. sectoral pilots and industrial-scale deployments 

Türkiye is positioned to become a regional sovereign AI hub if 2026 policy actions stay aligned.

7. US-China Race

2025 reinforced a clear bifurcation in frontier AI development between the United States and China, visible most prominently in LiveBench, AIME-level reasoning, and real-world tool-use evaluations. The competition no longer centers on model size, but on training efficiency, reasoning generalization, and multimodal grounding, areas where each region now exhibits distinct strengths. 

Models such as DeepSeek-R1 and QwQ (32B) demonstrated that China has established a leadership position in: 

• token-efficient training pipelines, enabled by large-scale curriculum learning and dynamic routing 

• Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures optimized for single or low-cost GPU inference 

• mathematical and symbolic reasoning, with R1 achieving 87.5% on AIME and topping structured reasoning subsets of LiveBench 

• energy-per-token reductions, aligning with China’s push for cost-optimized compute infrastructure 

OpenAI’s o3-mini and Google’s Gemini 3 Pro dominate in areas where China’s open-weight models remain less mature: 

• multimodal grounding and cross-modal retrieval 

• long-context tool-use and action execution, where US models lead by wide margins 

• instruction-following stability, especially under distribution shifts 

• alignment, controllability, and safety, supported by larger ecosystem investment and regulatory expectations 

China’s models dominate efficiency and math reasoning. US models dominate multimodal integration and tool-use reliability. This dynamic accelerates global investment and regional capability-building.

8. What 2026 Will Bring

1. Next-gen thinking models: Expected to push reasoning scores 2–5 points higher across blind tests.
2. Synthetic Data Supremacy: Human data is insufficient; synthetic curriculum training will dominate.
3. Context Engineering: Enterprise value shifts from prompts to knowledge stores and reasoning pipelines.
4. Scalable Physical AI: Manufacturing, logistics, inspection, and robotics workflows move into production.
5. Sovereign Hybrid Architectures: Local LLMs and selective frontier APIs become standard in regulated sectors.

9. What This Means for Enterprises

The winners of 2025 were not those with the largest GPU clusters. They were the companies that redesigned their operations around agentic systems, governed safely, and deployed within sovereignty constraints. 

MDP Group AI enables organizations to transform AI from experimental tools into a governed, high-performance Intelligence Layer built for real operations. Our approach is grounded in three pillars: 

1. Sovereign Intelligence

Your AI models run on-prem or in local clouds.  

2. Hybrid Reasoning Bridge

Frontier models (GPT-5, Claude 4.5, Gemini 3 Pro) are invoked only when needed, through a KVKK-compliant secure gateway. 

3. Enterprise Memory and Agent Automation

• Domain-aware RAG architecture 

• Multi-step autonomous agents 

• Human-in-the-loop approvals 

• Full audit trails 

The result is a durable, compliant, high-performance Intelligence Layer inside the enterprise. 

2026 will be defined by organizations that master reasoning, automate complex decisions, and control their own AI infrastructure. 

MDP Group builds the Intelligence Layer that makes this possible. 

References 

[1] Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI). AI Index Report 2025 – Full report and interactive data (April 2025).

https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/ 

[2] Epoch AI. Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning (updated December 2025).

https://epochai.org/trends 

[3] LMSYS Org. Chatbot Arena Leaderboard – Weekly snapshots 2024–2025 (final 2025 ranking: 28 Dec 2025).

https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard 

[4] McKinsey & Company. The State of AI in 2025: How generative AI is creating value across industries (November 2025).

https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-state-of-ai 

[5] Gartner. Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence 2025 & Strategic Technology Trends 2026 (July & October 2025). 

[6] IDC. Worldwide Artificial Intelligence Spending Guide, 2025 Update (Q4 2025). 

[7] Bessemer Venture Partners. State of the Cloud & AI Report 2025 (December 2025). 

[8] U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). AI/ML-Enabled Medical Devices Inventory – 950th approval milestone (August 2025). 

[9] Republic of Türkiye – Digital Transformation Office & Ministry of Industry and Technology.

National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2021–2025 Monitoring Report (December 2025);

2024–2025 Action Plan Completion Dashboard. 

[10] TÜBİTAK BİLGEM. Public announcements on the National Turkish Large Language Model Project phases (2024–2025).